Normal People Shouldn't Invest

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The world we live in today is inflationary. Through the constant increase in the money supply by governments around the world, the purchasing power of any dollars (or other government money) sitting in your wallet or bank account will go down over time. To simplify massively, this leaves people with three choices:

Keep your money in fiat currencies and earn a bit of interest. You’ll still lose purchasing power over time, because inflation virtually always beats interest, but you’ll lose it more slowly.
Try to beat inflation by investing in the stock market and other risk-on investments.
Recognize that the game is slanted against you, don’t bother saving or investing, and spend all your money today.

(Side note: if you’re reading this and screaming at your screen that there’s a much better option than any of these, I’ll get there, don’t worry.)

High living and melting ice cubes

Option 3 is what we’d call “high time preference.” It means you value the consumption you can have today over the potential savings for the future. In an inflationary environment, this is unfortunately a very logical stance to take. Your money is worth more today than it will ever be later. May as well live it up while you can. Or as Milton Friedman put it, engage in high living.

But let’s ignore that option for the moment, and pursue some kind of low time preference approach. Despite the downsides, we want to hold onto our wealth for the future. The first option, saving in fiat, would work with things like checking accounts, savings accounts, Certificates of Deposit (CDs), government bonds, and perhaps corporate bonds from highly rated companies. There’s little to no risk in those of losing your original balance or the interest (thanks to FDIC protection, a horrible concept I may dive into another time). And the downside is also well understood: you’re still going to lose wealth over time.

Or, to quote James from InvestAnswers, you can hold onto some melting ice cubes. But with sufficient interest, they’ll melt a little bit slower.

The investment option

With that option sitting on the table, many people end up falling into the investment bucket. If they’re more risk-averse, it will probably be a blend of both risk-on stock investment and risk-off fiat investment. But ultimately, they’re left with some amount of money that they want to put into a risk-on investment. The only reason they’re doing that is on the hopes that between price movements and dividends, the value of their investment will grow faster than anything else they can choose.

You may be bothered by my phrasing. “The only reason.” Of course that’s the only reason! We only put money into investments in order to make more money. What other possible reason exists?

Well, the answer is that while we invest in order to make money, that’s not the only reason. That would be like saying I started a tech consulting company to make money. Yes, that’s a true reason. But the purpose of the company is to meet a need in the market: providing consulting services. Like every economic activity, starting a company has a dual purpose: making a profit, but by providing actual value.

So what actual value is generated for the world when I choose to invest in a stock? Let’s rewind to real investment, and then we’ll see how modern investment differs.

Michael (Midas) Mulligan

Let’s talk about a fictional character, Michael Mulligan, aka Midas. In Atlas Shrugged, he’s the greatest banker in the country. He created a small fortune for himself. Then, using that money, he very selectively invested in the most promising ventures. He put his own wealth on the line because he believed each of those ventures had a high likelihood to succeed.

He wasn’t some idiot who jumps on his CNBC show to spout nonsense about which stocks will go up and down. He wasn’t a venture capitalist who took money from others and put it into the highest-volatility companies hoping that one of them would 100x and cover the massive losses on the others. He wasn’t a hedge fund manager who bets everything on financial instruments so complex he can’t understand them, knowing that if it crumbles, the US government will bail him out.

And he wasn’t a normal person sitting in his house, staring at candlestick charts, hoping he can outsmart every other person staring at those same charts by buying in and selling out before everyone else.

No. Midas Mulligan represented the true gift, skill, art, and value of real investment. In the story, we find out that he was the investor who got Hank Rearden off the ground. Hank Rearden uses that investment to start a steel empire that drives the country, and ultimately that powers his ability to invest huge amounts of his new wealth into research into an even better metal that has the promise to reshape the world.

That’s what investment is. And that’s why investment has such a high reward associated with it. It’s a massive gamble that may produce untold value for society. The effort necessary to determine the right investments is high. It’s only right that Midas Mulligan be well compensated for his work. And by compensating him well, he’ll have even more money in the future to invest in future projects, creating a positive feedback cycle of innovation and improvements.

Michael (Crappy Investor) Snoyman

I am not Midas Mulligan. I don’t have the gift to choose the winners in newly emerging markets. I can’t sit down with entrepreneurs and guide them to the best way to make their ideas thrive. And I certainly don’t have the money available to make such massive investments, much less the psychological profile to handle taking huge risks with my money like that.

I’m a low time preference individual by my upbringing, plus I am very risk-averse. I spent most of my adult life putting money into either the house I live in or into risk-off assets. I discuss this background more in a blog post on my current investment patterns. During the COVID-19 money printing, I got spooked about this, realizing that the melting ice cubes were melting far faster than I had ever anticipated. It shocked me out of my risk-averse nature, realizing that if I didn’t take a more risky stance with my money, ultimately I’d lose it all.

So like so many others, I diversified. I put money into stock indices. I realized the stock market was risky, so I diversified further. I put money into various cryptocurrencies too. I learned to read candlestick charts. I made some money. I felt pretty good.

I started feeling more confident overall, and started trying to predict the market. I fixated on this. I was nervous all the time, because my entire wealth was on the line constantly.

And it gets even worse. In economics, we have the concept of an opportunity cost. If I invest in company ABC and it goes up 35% in a month, I’m a genius investor, right? Well, if company DEF went up 40% that month, I can just as easily kick myself for losing out on the better opportunity. In other words, once you’re in this system, it’s a constant rat race to keep finding the best possible returns, not simply being happy with keeping your purchasing power.

Was I making the world a better place? No, not at all. I was just another poor soul trying to do a better job of entering and exiting a trade than the next guy. It was little more than riding a casino.

And yes, I ultimately lost a massive amount of money through this.

Normal people shouldn’t invest

Which brings me to the title of this post. I don’t believe normal people should be subjected to this kind of investment. It’s an extra skill to learn. It’s extra life stress. It’s extra risk. And it doesn’t improve the world. You’re being rewarded—if you succeed at all—simply for guessing better than others.

(Someone out there will probably argue efficient markets and that having everyone trading stocks like this does in fact add some efficiencies to capital allocation. I’ll give you a grudging nod of agreement that this is somewhat true, but not sufficiently enough to justify the returns people anticipate from making “good” gambles.)

The only reason most people ever consider this is because they feel forced into it, otherwise they’ll simply be sitting on their melting ice cubes. But once they get into the game, between risk, stress, and time investment, they’re lives will often get worse.

One solution is to not be greedy. Invest in stock market indices, don’t pay attention to day-to-day price, and assume that the stock market will continue to go up over time, hopefully beating inflation. And if that’s the approach you’re taking, I can honestly say I think you’re doing better than most. But it’s not the solution I’ve landed on.

Option 4: deflation

The problem with all of our options is that they are built in a broken world. The fiat/inflationary world is a rigged game. You’re trying to walk up an escalator that’s going down. If you try hard enough, you’ll make progress. But the system is against you. This is inherent to the design. The inflation in our system is so that central planners have the undeserved ability to appropriate productive capacity in the economy to do whatever they want with it. They can use it to fund government welfare programs, perform scientific research, pay off their buddies, and fight wars. Whatever they want.

If you take away their ability to print money, your purchasing power will not go down over time. In fact, the opposite will happen. More people will produce more goods. Innovators will create technological breakthroughs that will create better, cheaper products. Your same amount of money will buy more in the future, not less. A low time preference individual will be rewarded. By setting aside money today, you’re allowing productive capacity today to be invested into building a stronger engine for tomorrow. And you’ll be rewarded by being able to claim a portion of that larger productive pie.

And to reiterate: in today’s inflationary world, if you defer consumption and let production build a better economy, you are punished with reduced purchasing power.

So after burying the lead so much, my option 4 is simple: Bitcoin. It’s not an act of greed, trying to grab the most quickly appreciating asset. It’s about putting my money into a system that properly rewards low time preference and saving. It’s admitting that I have no true skill or gift to the world through my investment capabilities. It’s recognizing that I care more about destressing my life and focusing on things I’m actually good at than trying to optimize an investment portfolio.

Can Bitcoin go to 0? Certainly, though year by year that likelihood is becoming far less likely. Can Bitcoin have major crashes in its price? Absolutely, but I’m saving for the long haul, not for a quick buck.

I’m hoping for a world where deflation takes over. Where normal people don’t need to add yet another stress and risk to their life, and saving money is the most natural, safest, and highest-reward activity we can all do.